U.S. Consumer Confidence Stays Flat in July
The key consumer sentiment index edged up slightly to 61.8, compared to 60.7 in June. Although this marks the highest point in five months, sentiment remains sharply down—16 percent below its December 2024 mark—and stays well under its long-term average, the data reveal.
Short-term business conditions saw an approximate 8 percent improvement, but expectations for personal finances declined by around 4 percent.
"Consumers are unlikely to regain their confidence in the economy unless they feel assured that inflation is unlikely to worsen, for example if trade policy stabilizes for the foreseeable future," said Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's monthly Surveys of Consumers.
"At this time, the interviews reveal little evidence that other policy developments, including the recent passage of the tax and spending bill, moved the needle much on consumer sentiment," Hsu added.
Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped for the second consecutive month, falling sharply from 5 percent in June to 4.4 percent in July.
Long-term inflation expectations also declined for the third month in a row, retreating from 4 percent in June to 3.6 percent this month.
While both figures hit their lowest levels since February 2025, they remain above December 2024 levels, "indicating that consumers still perceive substantial risk that inflation will increase in the future," Hsu noted.
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